Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,187$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(285 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,116.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.18 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $333$ on 2020-05-10

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,305$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,485.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,485.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,823.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,823.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $219,070$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(214,806.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,560$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,887.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $83,324$ on 2020-05-10

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,329,260$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,376,334.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,376,334.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79,526$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,783.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(82,783.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,033,565$ on 2020-05-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $220,449$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(231,302.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,930$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,183.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,183.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $187,517$ on 2020-05-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,322$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,748.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,748.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,225$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,395.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,126$ on 2020-05-10

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $171,879$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{165,501.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(165,501.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,569$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(745 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,671.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,671.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,910$ on 2020-05-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Iceland recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 93%
New Zealand recovered 90%
Thailand recovered 89%
Switzerland recovered 87%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Austria recovered 86%
Australia recovered 86%
Malta recovered 84%
Taiwan* recovered 78%
Croatia recovered 74%
Germany recovered 73%
Niger recovered 70%
Andorra recovered 69%
Tunisia recovered 64%
Uzbekistan recovered 61%
North Macedonia recovered 58%
Djibouti recovered 57%
Denmark recovered 56%
Slovakia recovered 52%
Israel recovered 51%
Costa Rica recovered 50%
Turkey recovered 48%
Lithuania recovered 43%
Cuba recovered 42%
Malaysia recovered 41%
Japan recovered 41%
Spain recovered 39%
Czechia recovered 38%
Italy recovered 23%
Georgia recovered 14%
Serbia recovered 9%
Hungary recovered 7%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,010$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(4.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,451.8}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,451.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,448.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,448.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $206$ on 2020-05-10

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(405 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(2.58 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-10

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,886$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(716 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,734.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,734.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(17.3 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 26.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $199$ on 2020-05-10

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,497$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(318 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,471.4}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,471.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.9}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 20.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-05-10