Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,187$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(285 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,116.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $90$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(7.18 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $333$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,305$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,485.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,485.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,823.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 36.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,823.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,872$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $219,070$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{214,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(214,806.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,560$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,887.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $83,324$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,329,260$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,376,334.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,376,334.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79,526$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,783.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(82,783.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,033,565$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $220,449$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(231,302.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,930$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,183.7}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,183.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $187,517$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,322$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,748.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,748.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,225$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,395.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,126$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $171,879$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{165,501.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(165,501.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,569$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(745 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,671.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(7,671.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,910$ on 2020-05-10